Early Season Discrepancies

After three matches of a football season, points on the board can have almost as much to do with what the fixture list has thrown up as the relative quality of the different teams.

A case in point is Newcastle Utd, currently one position higher in the table than upcoming opponents Aston Villa, with four points from three games. Yet you would be hard pushed to find any neutral who thinks the Magpies have actually looked the better team of the pair so far this season - the league table really does ‘lie’ in these early stages!

Villa have had the toughest start imaginable with away trips to Arsenal and Chelsea being followed by a home game with Liverpool.

Arsenal 1 Villa 3
Chelsea 2 Villa 1
Villa 0 Liverpool 1

Compare that to the Toon Army who, having been thumped 4-0 by Man City on opening weekend, were then hosts to West Ham and Fulham at St James’s Park.

Most interesting of all is that based on our ‘alternative football form guide,’ Villa could easily have come through their nightmare fixture list unbeaten. The adjusted scorelines for Paul Lambert’s team, based on shots analysis, so far would be:

Arsenal 1 Villa 1
Chelsea 1 Villa 1
Villa 2 Liverpool 0

We can see that the Villains were fortunate to take all three points at the Emirates but very unlucky to suffer back-to-back defeats after that when a four point haul would have been ‘fair.’

It should be stated for the record that Newcastle have also merited victories based on shots analysis against West Ham and Fulham. However, most teams would expect to dominate these opponents on their own pitch so there is less to get excited about in this respect.

The real story is that Villa have at least held their own against three Champions League hopefuls and should not be under-estimated now that easier fixtures are coming along.