Championship Tip

The Championship promotion race is nearing its climax on Monday evening with two consecutive matches that will have a massive bearing on who begins next season in the big time. Norwich begin the day occupying the second automatic promotion spot by a single point from Cardiff City. The Welsh side play first on the bank holiday, with a home game against Middlesboro providing the chance to apply maximum pressure. The Canaries will then line-up at Fratton Park to face an out of form Portsmouth side.

But at this point, team selections and form seem less critical; all that matters is who holds their nerve with so much at stake. The expectation would be that Cardiff should win their home fixture, and this in itself brings with it enormous pressure. The good news from a tipping perspective is that we can be sure Norwich will also be jittery, regardless of the outcome in Wales. Yes, a win for the Bluebirds would push the East Anglians down to third, but even a shock home defeat for Cardiff won’t alleviate the tension. This would leave the Canaries needing a win to go up on the night; just ask QPR fans if this relaxes the players. The fact would remain that a slip-up, even a draw for Norwich, would guarantee the action going to the final weekend.

With this in mind I’m going to rule out any sort of comfortable away win for Paul Lambert’s side. Only a couple of early goals would make this a likely outcome. Instead, I think Norwich will draw heart from their remarkable record of having scored 12 goals this season in the 89th minute or later. This doesn’t mean that drama will definitely come so late yet again on Monday, but it will encourage the away side that they can win a tight encounter. There can be no substitute in this situation for the self-belief that you can score late goals. The players may think, deep down, that the signs are there that this is their season. At 4/1 Coral offer us the tempting half-time draw, with Norwich winning in the end.