Championship Play-Off Final Tip

By Monday evening one more team will have earned a lucrative place in the Premier League, worth an estimated £90m. For the losers, tears before bedtime and another season of slog in the Championship awaits. The bookies almost make it too close to call. Swansea finished third in the league and therefore creep in as the most marginal of favourites at a best price 17/10 with PaddyPower. Reading are not far behind at 9/5 with Bluesquare. Both teams finished the regualr season in fine form and the semi-final performances were comparable; the 23/10 available with Coral on a draw after 90 minutes looks favourable.

With both teams enjoying more than their fair share of clean sheets in recent weeks, the 2/1 bet365 offer on their being less than two goals in the match looks like another tempter. Swansea have let in just two goals in their last six games and just 42 in all during the regular 46-match season. Reading have shut out their opponents in five of their last eight outings and overcame Cardiff in the play-off semi-final without conceding home or away.

The difference between the sides could prove to be Royals’ marksman Shane Long. The in-form striker is 6/1 with skybet to break the deadlock at Wembley having bagged a brace in the 3-0 victory in Wales last time out. But with two quite equally matched sides we can constructively limit down the likely scorelines on the day and this is where we can find our best value bet. Between 2007 and 2009 all three Championship play-off finals ended 1-0 after 90 minutes. Last year’s showpiece produced goals but with Ian Holloway’s Blackpool playing, that’s hardly surprising! In general terms these matches have become nervy, cagey affairs with nobody wanting to make a £90m error. A low scoreline is highly likely.

Reading flew up the table having been 12th as late as February. A run of eight consecutive league wins very nearly took them all the way to automatic promotion. They were slightly the more convincing in the semi finals and Shane Long will be champing at the bit after scoring two of his 25 goals this season in the last match. I make them marginal favourites on this basis, so the 7/1 with Boylesports on a Reading 1-0 win gets my backing.