Hiddink’s Chelsea A Different Proposition

Two months ago you wouldn’t have given Chelsea a prayer in this fixture but under Guus Hiddink they are a team reborn.

It’s difficult to understand what the problem was under Mourinho but I from a betting perspective we don’t need to care – all we know is that they were bad.

Since Guus Hiddink took over on the 19 December, everything has changed. Chelsea are unbeaten under their interim manager but it’s the underlying numbers that have impressed.

Using Paul Riley’s expected goal model you can see the dramatic improvement under Hiddink. Chelsea are averaging an improved 1.72 expected goals per game and their defence is less porous conceding on average 1.09 expected goals per game. All this adds up to an improvement of almost an (expected) goal per game. 

The market is slowly coming round to this Chelsea upgrade but they are still a whopping 5/4 (BetVictor) to avoid defeat in Paris on Tuesday.

PSG are romping away with Ligue 1 and are unbeaten in France all season but that perhaps has more to do with the standard of competition. PSG failed to beat Real Madrid in the group stages, arguably the only elite team they’ve faced this season. Chelsea might not be in that category but they should provide a stern test and are a good bet at 5/4 (BetVictor) in the double chance market.