Bournemouth v Sunderland Preview: Sunderland to win

Unfortunately, everyone watching Sunderland last weekend will only remember the last 20 minutes. Having clawed their way back into the game, the Black Cats capitulated but they don’t face a team of Arsenal’s calibre every week.

David Moyes has a huge task on his hand because his team are poor but they aren’t the worst in the division (Hull & Burnley I’m looking at you) and the only way is up.

Sunderland don’t take enough shots (8.9 game state adjusted) and concede too many (19.0) but they aren’t so much worse than Bournemouth. In terms of expected goals per game there is 0.6 between them, in favour of Bournemouth and that isn’t enough to account for the disparity in odds.

Bournemouth are due a slight negative adjustment in their save% and conversion% whilst Sunderland a due a positive move. At least with Sunderland, 62% of their shots (although small in volume) are from inside the box.

I’m slightly worried Sunderland have forgotten how to win so I’m playing the draw no bet market for insurance; an away win is 10/3 with BetVictor.