Bolton v Man Utd

The televised Saturday evening match sees Bolton entertain the champions Manchester United. Owen Coyle must wonder what his side have done to deserve the fixture list the start of the season has thrown up. Liverpool and Manchester City have already been and gone with the points, Arsenal and Chelsea follow hot on the heels of Fergie’s young guns.

In betting terms, this would be an easy game to get carried away with. United were on scintillating form before the international break, putting a combined 11 goals past the hapless North London duo of Arsenal and Spurs. It would be foolish to look at those results and simply say ‘how many will it be against Bolton?’ The two week gap could break up the champions’ rhythm a little, and besides, they won’t go on scoring every time they venture towards the opposition’s box. Football just isn’t like that.

But don’t worry, I’m not about use these minor reservations as a reason to tip an upset. Bolton are a best price of 8/1 (Bet365) for a reason; they were soundly beaten by Liverpool and City when it’s all said and done. I make these comments more to discourage bets like United to win by four goals or more at 15/2 with StanJames. It’s disrespectful to the Trotters to suggest they will just roll over in a local derby.

That said, we must do better than simply backing an away win at discouraging best odds of 4/9 with Coral. The option I prefer is United to win, having led at half-time. To get 11/10  on that, with the same firm, seems like a big improvement. The firepower at Ferguson’s disposal is so great that I don’t think it much matters what side he puts out. Bolton were losing at half-time and full-time in both their previous league matches and a repeat must be highly probable again. To get better than evens on that scenario playing out is a rare piece of value when betting on United.