Bayern Munich v Real Madrid: First Goalscorer Tip

The bookies are making Bayern Munich marginal favourites (17/10 Coral) to win the first leg of their Champions League semi-final against Real Madrid (9/5 BetVictor) due to home advantage. The match is almost too close to call, but that is enough of a starting point to help us find some value in the first goalscorer market.

Allowing for the possibility of a 0-0 draw, let’s say that the Germans have a 45% chance of breaking the deadlock at the Allianz Arena. If that estimate is even close to accurate then Mario Gomez looks like a steal at best odds of 6/1 (StanJames) to be the man to do it.

The 26-year-old is enjoying a vintage season with 39 goals in all competitions making him very much the ‘go-to man’ when it comes to finding the net. Gomez has bagged 11 of the 22 Champions League goals that Bayern have scored from the groups stages onwards - obviously 50%.

Using these figures we might suppose that the former Stuttgart striker has about a 23% chance of being first goalscorer on Tuesday night. That would make him closer to a 3/1 shot than the 6/1 (StanJames) being offered up!

Even if we take into account that Gomez doesn’t score 50% of his side’s goals in all competitions we still have value. Obviously he’s used more sparingly in certain German league matches and therefore his ratio is bound to be lower. But on the big European nights he really comes into his own.

The first goalscorer market is skewed by Cristiano Ronaldo (9/2 StanJames) who has 53 goals this season. But the Madrid star has fewer (8) than Gomez in Champions League matches in 2011-12 and his side are marginal underdogs for this first leg at the Allianz Arena. These factors mean we should favour the German hotshot on this occasion.