Barcelona v AC Milan Tip

The bookies think Barcelona will win in 90 minutes (1/3 PaddyPower) on Tuesday night but that it won’t prove enough to progress. AC Milan are the 4/6 (WilliamHill) favourites to make the quarter-finals having established a 2-0 lead in Italy; the Catalans are 13/10 (Bet365) shots to qualify.

The reasons why the Spanish team are expected to record victory at the Nou Camp are largely self-evident - that Lionel Messi has 51 goals in 41 games this season being among the most compelling considerations. So in some regards it’s a surprise to find them as underdogs to progress. Perhaps the most obvious explanation for this is that no team have ever turned around a Champions League two-goal deficit without the benefit of an away goal.

So Barca need to make history to reach the last eight, but if any side is primed to do that it is surely the La Liga runaway leaders who hold a 13-point advantage over their nearest rivals domestically.

The 2009 and 2011 Champions League winners have not lost a European tie on their own patch since October 2009 and scoring is highly unlikely to be their problem here. A clean sheet is vital though and they finally kept one in a 2-0 success over Deportivo La Coruna on Saturday. They could repeat that scoreline here.

Milan are on good form and were well worth their sensational 2-0 win at the San Siro a fortnight ago. That said, they haven’t travelled well in the knockout stages of this competition for some time. I think they can do enough to earn extra-time but at that point I would only envisage one winner.

Remarkably, Barcelona are a barely believable best price of 18/1 to win this tie after extra-time with Ladbrokes. With other firms offering as little as 11/1 this looks like terrific value.

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