Women's Australian Open: Winner Tip

With six different winners in the last seven women’s Grand Slam tournaments, it’s fair to say there are always a lot of contenders to consider. Unlike the men’s game, where the big four totally dominate, it seems almost scandalous not to find a little value when tipping a female champion. The record books suggest that a long-odds punt always has every chance these days. Strangely, a very familiar name, Maria Sharapova, fits the bill nicely as best odds of 35/1 with PaddyPower.

Firstly, let me say a few words about several of the other ladies found at much shorter odds. Serena Williams (4/1) and Kim Clijsters (10/1) have had significant injury concerns for a long time and are probably reaching the end of their careers. Doubts remain over their fitness this week.

Then we have Wozniacki (20/1) and Azarenka (6/1), both ranked in the top three but yet to win a Grand Slam title between them. French Open champion Li Na (12/1) has struggled to cope with an expectant Chinese nation since that triumph while US Open victor Sam Stosur (25/1) is crumbling ahead of her homecoming major.

I couldn’t argue with anyone who thinks Petra Kvitova will win this title however. The 21-year-old Wimbledon champion has the power and mental fortitude to become that dominant presence that has been missing in the women’s game recently. However, at 3/1, I don’t think she represents amazing value. 2011 was considered her breakthrough year and she made unwanted history at the US Open. Having won at SW17, Kvitova became the first Grand Slam champion to lose in the first round of the next major without winning a set.

All this leads me to recommend 2008 Australian Open champion Maria Sharapova at 35/1 each-way. Favourite to win Wimbledon before being beaten by Kvitova in the final, it’s hard to understand why the bookies have lost so much faith in the 24-year-old.

Admittedly, the Russian suffered an ankle injury at the end of last year that has hampered her preparations but she claims now that “the body feels really good.” Sharapova suggests that she could have played a warm-up tournament a week or so ago but elected to do extra training instead. Fitness concerns haven’t stopped Williams and Clijsters being priced up at short odds, so it seems strange that the younger, higher ranked (number four) Sharapova has been written off.

The three-time Slam winner has pedigree in a wide-open contest. If we take the each-way option on her at 35/1 (PaddyPower) we get paid at half odds even if she loses in the final.