Goals Galore In The Premier League

The Premier League is one of the most entertaining leagues in the world, with goals seemingly flying in every weekend. This has seen a boom in the ‘both teams to score’ market turnover with bookmakers like Betfred trying to capitalise on this growth with enhanced accumulator offers. But is this a good bet?

Premier League average goals per game

The last three seasons have seen an increase in the average goals per game and the 2012/13 campaign is keeping pace. However, more goals per game doesn’t necessarily mean both teams are scoring, it could be a few whipping boys distorting the figures.

Number of games where both teams score 2011/12 season

Green ranked in top five, Red ranked in bottom five

Last season there were 204 games where both teams scored, which equates to 54%. In terms of odds it is approximately a 5/6 chance that both teams score.

Delving into individual team records, Norwich (71%) were involved in the highest number of games where both team scored and Swansea (37%) the fewest. Away from individual team analysis there are some general trends that come to the fore.

• Teams fighting relegation (bottom five in league) were involved in more games where both teams scored.
• Manchester City and Manchester United were involved in relatively few matches where both teams scored.
• Teams that scored lots of goals weren’t necessarily involved in lots of games where both teams scored.
• Teams with poor defensive records were involved in more instances where both teams scored. The opposite is true for teams with good defence records.

Using these trends we can set up a system with six simple betting rules:

Both Teams To Score - Yes
1. If odds are greater than 5/6
2. Bottom five of the league
3. One of the five worst defence records

Both Teams to score – No
1. If odds are greater than 6/5
2. If Manchester City or Manchester United are involved
3. Top five meanest defensive record

For the reminder of the season we will be placing a hypothetical £1 bet when there is a majority of ‘yes’ or ‘no’ votes. If there is an equal number of ‘yes’ and ‘no’ votes we do not place a bet.

Below are this weekend’s (8/12/2012) system bets. Results will be updated the following week once all the matches have taken place.

YES
Southampton v Reading – 8/13 (Bet365)
Sunderland v Chelsea – Evens (Bet365)
Wigan v QPR – 8/11 (Bet365)
Fulham v Newcastle – 8/11 (Blue Square)

NO
Arsenal v West Brom – 11/10 (Paddy Power)
Swansea v Norwich – 11/10 (Paddy Power)
Man City v Man Utd – 13/8 (Coral)

Worked Example

Southampton v Reading – 8/13 (Bet365)

• Odds are greater than 6/5