Racing Post Trophy Tips: Century

On ratings alone it is difficult to enthuse about Century’s chances in the Racing Post trophy (3.50 Doncaster) but this is one occasion when the clock doesn’t tell the whole story.

Century won on his debut at the Curragh a fortnight ago but ‘per furlong’ his race was by far the slowest of the day.  Watch the race and you can see why. They crawled along for the first five furlongs before embarking on a sprint for home.

Joseph O’Brien was caught in a hopeless position, near the back of the pack trying to catch the leaders in a quickening pace.

1.55 Curragh (13 October 2013)

Look at this freeze-frame taken approximately 3 furlongs from home; Century (circled on the right) is five lengths behind the eventful runner-up Marakoush (circled left).

Somehow Century finds a change of gear that allows him to bridge the gap and then go on and win the race by 1.5 lengths. If you examine the final 3f of the contest as a race in it’s own rights, then Century was 6.5 lengths better than Marakoush.

With lightly raced juveniles it’s difficult to give them accurate ratings, but the Racing Post gave Marakoush’s performance a rating of 81. If Century was 6.5 lengths better then he could in theory be given a rating of 101 (6.5 lengths = 20lbs).

Suddenly Century’s performance is more exciting from a numbers point of view and this may have gone unnoticed by the betting market.

Aiden O’Brien has won three of the last four renewals of this race and with Joseph O’Brien onboard, Century must be Ballydoyle’s first string. Given all these positives factors at 9/2 (William Hill) we have an excellent bet. 

*Best Odds Guaranteed – William Hill
Back Century with William Hill as they are best price and offer Best Odds Guaranteed. If the starting price (SP) is bigger than the current price, you get paid at the bigger SP.