9th Jul 2012 | Horse Racing
Pontefract Tip: Valery Borzov
Undone by the draw bias at Newcastle on his last start. Ignore that run and he still holds excellent claims on soft ground.
It is another day of rain-sodden ground and with the going description soft, heavy in places, I’m looking for a mudlark in the 4.30 Pontefract.
Valery Borzov has proved effective in testing conditions and must come into the equation. According to Racing Post Ratings he is 11lbs better on soft ground.
Last 10 RPRs on ‘good to soft’ or softer, 6f only:
97-108-101-96-76-96-73-98-89-49 = 88.3 average
Last 10 RPRs on ground no worse than ‘good’, 6f only:
79-97-91-71-87-57-89-59-76-65 = 77.1 average
Regular readers will know this is exactly the same argument I used for backing the horse 10 days ago at Newcastle. He finished ninth that day beaten 21 lengths, hence the low RPR of 49 but there were mitigating circumstances.
The official going at Newcastle was ‘heavy’ but that is being generous – conditions were atrocious. Valery Borzov finished completely legless as if he’d run a 3mile chase as opposed to a 6f sprint. He also raced alone down the centre of the track on a day the stand’s rail dominated; the first four home were drawn in the highest four stalls. Results from the meeting must be treated with caution.
Forgive that last run and Valery Borzov looks excellent value at 11/1 with Paddy Power.
*Best Odds Guaranteed – Paddy Power
Back Valery Borzov with Paddy Power as they are best price and offer Best Odds Guaranteed. If the starting price (SP) is bigger than the current price, you get paid at the bigger SP.
Odds correct at time of publishing: 20:58 9th Jul, 2012 but subject to change
