Mar Adentro To Bounce Back

Before getting stuck into the 2.15 Meydan it is worth covering some American horse racing doctrine.

The ‘bounce theory’ was an idea coined by the American horseplayer Len Ragozin. A horse is said to have ‘bounced’ if it puts in a poor performance after being quickly returned to the track for a second run after a long layoff. It can also be used to describe a horse who flops on the next run after a supreme effort.

Empirical evidence is thin on the ground but Mar Adentro showed all the hallmarks of a ‘bouncing’ last time out in Meydan. On his second run after a long layoff, he finished tailed off. Unfortunately, I tipped him that day.

You can see from the fractional splits, he put in a huge effort on his first run back after a 3-month break. He made a strong mid-race move only to tire in the last furlong. I initially put that down to rustiness but it clearly took it’s toll. In his next race he was tailed off, although reports say he finished the race sound.

Judged on his first performance at Meydan he stands an excellent chance. He also benefits from this race not being a handicap, therefore he isn’t penalised by carrying a huge weight. His qualities are undoubted as he finished fourth in the Group 1 Prix De L’Abbaye, one of the top sprints in Europe.  At 20/1 (Paddy Power) his price is too big.

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