Meydan Tips: Mar Adentro

People might be put off betting on Meydan’s racing because the form is hard to judge with numerous international horses. Unlike in Britain however, Dubai racing comes with sectional timings, giving the punter an edge if they are willing to put in the work.

When studying the runners for the 4.55 Meydan I came across an interesting performance that highlights the usefulness of sectional timings. I have reformatted the data from the Dubai Racing Club website to show how fast each horse ran 200m sections of the five furlong race on 3 February.

12.45 Meydan – 3 February 2012

The data shows Inxile was the early leader, running the first 200m in 14.02 seconds, with Bohemian Melody the fastest finisher, covering the last 200m in 11.84 seconds. Incidentally, Monsieur Joe won the race, even though he was not the fastest finisher.

This is all very interesting but doesn’t give us much of an edge; we could have garnered this information by just watching the race on TV. But he horse to study is Mar Adentro, who finished sixth.

After racing in fifth, he made a strong mid-race move between 400m-800m. He covered that stretch 0.15s quicker than any other horse, a burst that saw him move from 5th to 1st place. Unfortunately, he could not sustain it and tired dramatically in the last 200m, losing several positions.

Looking at Mar Adentro’s sectional timings we see a classic case of a horse lacking ‘match fitness’. This was his first run in three-months and it is understandable why he tired at the end of such a strongly run race.

Today he races against many of the same opponents and with a run under his belt, I expect him to finish the race much more strongly. At 12/1 Paddy Power have priced Mar Adentro at face value, but with the power of sectional timings we know he stands a much better chance than those odds suggest.

*Best Odds Guaranteed – Paddy Power
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