17th Aug 2011 | Golf
The Golf Outsider: Czech Open
A new feature where we highlight the long shots with a chance better than their odds suggest.
In a new feature, we have enlisted the help of a semi-pro golf punter who has a unique way of betting. Using Betfair our ‘Golf Outsider’ focuses on players at very long odds. His theory is that markets overreact to birdies, therefore even a seeming no-hoper can get in contention during a tournament and see his odds contract.
Each week he will highlight players on the PGA and European Tour to look out for at long odds. Either to back and trade or let them run.
Czech Open
Now in its third year, the Czech Open will be played at the Prosper golf resort, Celadna.
Since there is only two years worth of course form it pays to look for other trends. I like to back players who are showing hints of form at bigger prices.
One obvious trend is that a Swede has won the event both times. Oskar Henningson in 2009 and Peter Hanson last year. The lowest Swede in the betting this time round is a massive 150/1, although that is due to the lack of any big names from that region participating.
The man in question is Oscar Floren. The similarities between him and Henningson don’t stop at their Christian name. Floren was also a Challenge Tour winner the previous year, in fact he has a much better record than Henningson did. He has warmed up nicely with a T25 in his previous tournament and also has two fifth place finishes and a seventh this year.
Recommend Bet: Oscar Floren @ 140.0
Carlos Del Moral is precariously balanced at number 100 on the Race to Dubai and will no doubt see this tournament as a great opportunity to secure his Tour card next season. He was T39 last year and is in great form, coming off the back of a T11 in the Irish Open. Combined with a drop in class I think his price of 90.0 on the exchanges looks big.
Recommend Bet: Carlos Del Moral @ 90.0
Once again I’ll go back to the Henningson win and point out that he was the hot player that week, coming off a 4th placed finish. One promising talent from last year’s Challenge Tour graduates is Bernd Wiesberger. Having finished T4 at the Irish Open on his last start there is solid evidence he can back that up with a win. Having finished T2 at The Princess last year he followed up with a win on his next start at the Open de Lyon. He has another win under his belt at the Open de Toulouse so the 150.0 on offer is looking like a great prospect.
Odds correct at time of publishing: 11:08 17th Aug, 2011 but subject to change
