21st Mar 2013 | Formula 1
Malaysian GP Preview
We analyse the lap times from the Australian GP and examine who could go well in Malaysia this weekend.
Value of pole position
Rain can shuffle the pack, with Fernando Alonso coming from ninth on the grid to win last year. If conditions stay dry then grid position is important. From 2008 to 2011 the winner came from no lower than third on the grid.
Fernando Alonso (Pole/ Win/ Fastest Lap) 25/1 (Skybet)
Driver to watch
Sergio Perez burst onto the scene with a stunning second place finish in his Sauber last year. A return to Sepang should bring back fond memories.
Sergio Perez to win 50/1 (Boylesports)
Retirement Rate – High
There have been 22 non-classified drivers in the last five years. In percentage terms, 80% of cars finish the Malaysian GP and with 22 starters this weekend, a spread of 17-18 finishers looks about right.
Exactly 17-18 classified finishers 9/4 (Bet365)
Last Race Analysis: Australian GP
With so many different race strategies we have tried to analyse lap times to get a better picture of the raw pace of each car. We have compared lap times for cars on the same tyre compound, with similar fuels loads and broken down the race into ‘stints’.
Despite starting seventh on the grid Kimi Raikkonen was the fastest driver in the first stint. The Mercedes struggled on the super-softs and the decision to run a long first stint counted against them.
Confirmation that Kimi Raikkonen had the quickest car in the race. A two or three stop strategy would have produced the same result. Note the decent pace by Jean-Eric Vergne in the Torro Rosso.
The first evidence of McLaren’s struggles; Jenson Button was way off the pace and over half a second slower than his team mate, Sergio Perez.
Mark Webber showed good pace as he recovered through the field but generally the Ferrari had the edge over the Red Bull, with Vettel never heading Alonso in any of the four stints. It is therefore a surprise to see him shorter than Alonso in the betting for the Malaysian GP.
Odds correct at time of publishing: 11:41 21st Mar, 2013 but subject to change