Wayward Shooting Costs Norwich Points

Using ‘shots on target’ rather than goals as our key metric, we analyse recent Premier League fixtures to see if the scorelines were a fair reflection of the game.

29 January 2013

Source: whoscored.com
Negative numbers = away team supremacy

Norwich need a striker
Chris Hughton might be pleased with a point against Spurs but the Norwich manager seems acutely aware of his problems. Norwich are the third lowest scoring side in the division and his pursuit of strikers during the transfer window highlights the problem.

The Canaries have mustered just six shots on target in their last four matches and their accumulation of five points in eight games is a fair reflection of their performances. It is a problem that has blighted them all season. In terms of shooting accuracy (shots on target/shots), Norwich rank fourth bottom with only Aston Villa, West Brom and Liverpool below them.

Alternative Form Table

Samba replacing Nelsen is key
According to our alternative form table, QPR have stolen three draws in matches statistically they should have lost. We discussed Julio Cesar’s heroics a couple of weeks back but Ryan Nelsen has been equally important.

In the 21 Premier League matches he played, QPR conceded an average of 1.38 goals per game, without him it shot up to 2.67. Putting financial considerations aside; it is understandable why Harry Redknapp has bought a like-for-like replacement in Christopher Samba.

This weekend a defensively sound QPR take on goal shy Norwich. It is 5/2 (Betfred) that QPR win to nil.