Underrated Montenegro Provide Value

Fifa’s football world rankings are often mocked but can they point us towards value in the World Cup Qualifiers?

To put this to the test we have pitted Fifa against the bookmakers, using the European section of the World Cup Qualifiers as our sample.

The following table compares Fifa’s world rankings. A positive number in the difference tab means the home team are the higher ranked nation and a negative number means the away team are the higher ranked nation.

All odds used are in decimal format.

Montenegro away win
Montenegro top group H, ahead of England, yet they are still underrated by the British bookmakers. Ranked 103 places above Moldova they are a generous 8/13 (Bet365) for the win.

With hopes of automatic qualification for the World Cup very much alive, this is a must-win game for Montenegro. Having won 1-0 in Ukraine, a trip to Moldova should hold no fears; the Moldovans are yet to score against anyone other than San Marino.

Slovakia home win
With a 60-place gap in the world rankings, plus home advantage, Slovakia look overpriced at 4/7 (Bet365) to beat Lithuania. France and Austria enjoy similar levels of supremacy over their opponents but are nearer the 1/8 mark.

Bookmakers might point to the draw shared between the sides at the start of qualifying, but Slovakia were reduced to 10-men after 65 minutes, playing away from home. With players of the calibre of Marek Hamsik to call upon, plus home advantage, they should win comfortably.

Suggested Bets
Montenegro to win 8/13 (Bet365)
Slovakia to win 4/7 (Bet365)