Underdogs all the Way?

In this feature we’re having a look at whether you’d be better off backing all the favourites or all the underdogs on a random weekend in the Premier League season.
Prior to the round of fixtures just completed, we noted down the shortest price and the longest price available out of home win, away win or draw. By putting a hypothetical £10 on the favourite and the long-shot option, we can see which approach would have been better overall.

Backing the favourites:

Man City (8/11 PaddyPower): +£7.27
Liverpool (2/5 Ladbrokes) -£10
Man Utd (2/9 BetVictor) +£2.22
Norwich (6/5 PaddyPower) +£12
QPR (7/5 Bluesquare) +£14
Everton (31/20 BetVictor) -£10
Tottenham (7/10 BetVictor) +£7
WBA (21/20 PaddyPower) -£10
Arsenal (7/10 WilliamHill) +£7

Total this week: +£19.49
Running total: +£15.37

A pretty good week for out short-odds punter with 6 out of 9 favourites taking three points.

Backing the Outsiders:

Newcastle 24/5 (StanJames) -£10
Aston Villa (17/2 Skybet) +£85
Sunderland (16/1 Betfred) -£10
Wigan (5/2 BetVictor) -£10
Fulham (85/40 BetVictor) -£10
Draw: Eve v Stoke: 23/10 (Ladbrokes) +£23
Swansea (24/5 StanJames) -£10
West Ham (3/1 Boylesports) -£10
Reading (9/2 Bet365) -£10

Total: +£38
Running Total: +£99.33

So a second profitable week in a row for the fan of the underdog largely because of a shock win for Villa at Anfield. The Everton-Stoke game is an interesting example of when the draw is the longest price even though the bookies think it will be a particularly tight encounter ie there is no significant outsider.

So, after two weeks of case study, backing all the favourites or all the outsiders is proving profitable. Happy days!

However, it is far too early to draw the conclusion that it’s easy to make money from these blanket approaches. There were only two draws this week, one of which paid off the outsider fan. A spate of stalemates may prove costly to both our hypothetical punters in future weeks. We will see.