Underdogs all the Way?

In a new feature we’re having a look at whether you’d be better off backing all the favourites or all the underdogs on a random weekend in the Premier League season.

Prior to the round of fixtures just completed, we noted down the shortest price and the longest price available out of home win, away win or draw. By putting a hypothetical £10 on the favourites and the long-shot option, we can see which approach would have been better overall.

Backing the favourites:

Chelsea (10/11 Bet365): -£10
Arsenal (1/2 Coral) -£10
Spurs (29/20 BetVictor) +£14.50
Liverpool (4/9 Ladbrokes) +£4.44
Man City (8/15 Skybet) -£10
QPR (21/20 WilliamHill) -£10
WBA (11/10 BetVictor) -£10
Man Utd (4/9 PaddyPower) +£4.44
Norwich (6/5 Ladbrokes) +£12
Newcastle (21/20 BetVictor) +£10.50

Total: -£4.12

Our short-odds punter would have had a slight loss this weekend after 5 out of 10 favourites won.

Backing the outsiders:

West Ham (10/3 Betfred) +£33.33
Swansea (7/1 Totesport) +£70
Draw: Ful v Tot: (5/2 StanJames) -£10
Southampton (8/1 BetVictor) -£10
Everton (6/1 Betfred) -£10
Villa (3/1 BetVictor) -£10
Stoke (14/5 Boylesports) +£28
Reading (15/2 BetVictor) -£10
Sunderland (14/5 BetVictor) -£10
Wigan (3/1 Bluesquare) -£10

Total: +£61.33

It would have been a spectacularly good week for the fan of the underdog with a healthy profit coming from three upsets. However, it’s worth noting that it would have been a narrow loss without Swansea winning and they were 0-0 with two minutes remaining.

So the margins between success and failure in the Premier League seem as fine as ever. That said, our first week of study suggests that underdog betting may be the way to go. Swansea may not have snatched it till late but, on the other hand, Everton and Reading were both winning at one point at long odds so the profits could have been even bigger!

We’ll select other weekends at random to see if these trends continue or prove to be an anomaly.