Tottenham v Aston Villa

A cursory glance at the league table makes the Monday night match look like it should be close, with 5th facing 8th. However, the gulf in class between Tottenham and Villa is considerable; Spurs are well-placed for a top three finish with two games in hand, while McLeish’s side have benefitted from a favourable fixture run. In a month’s time expect Tottenham to be higher and Villa lower.

The bookies are wise to the likelihood of a home win in this encounter and the best odds of 4/7 (PaddyPower) look prohibitive. A better bet appears to be Spurs to score in both halves at 11/10 with WilliamHill. Let’s look at some statistical evidence that makes this look like a shrewd investment.

Firstly, Redknapp’s side have been scoring for fun ever since the end of August. The hosts have bagged 20 goals in their last eight league matches, scoring at least two in every single encounter. They have found the net in both halves in six of their last seven outings.

If those weren’t great enough grounds for optimism then the weakness of the opposition should be a clincher. Villa may not be losing every week but they certainly aren’t keeping it tight at the back. The visitors have conceded at least two in each of their last four games; Norwich, Sunderland and WBA were the last three opponents, hardly the most feared attackers in the land. Man City predictably put four past them before that.

Tottenham are certainly much closer in pedigree to the league leaders than the other sides we’ve just mentioned. Rafa Van Der Vaart claimed four goals against Villa in 2010-11 and he’s continued a rich vein of form. Gareth Bale is back on the goal trail after notching a brace against QPR before breaking the deadlock in the last game against Fulham.

To sum up, Villa have conceded in both halves four times in a row. Spurs have scored in both halves in six of their last seven. If the form holds up, then 11/10 (WilliamHill) is great value.