The Race for Top Four

With Everton beaten at Sunderland last weekend, there now appears to be a three-way tussle for Champions League qualification between Arsenal, Chelsea and Tottenham. We study the form and the odds to see where the value may lie.

Arsenal

Current position: 3rd
Games played: 34
Points/Goal difference: 63 (+30)

Best odds to finish top four: 4/11 (Boylesports)

Form (starting with most recent match): WDWWWW (16pts from a possible 18)

Fixtures: Man Utd (h), QPR (a), Wigan (h), Newcastle (a)

Summary: On the best form and the remaining fixtures suddenly look remarkably well-timed. Man Utd will be in party mood on Sunday, QPR may already be down, the Wigan game comes three days after the Latics play in a first FA Cup final while Newcastle may be safe heading into the final day. Arsene Wenger has never missed when it comes to finishing top-four in 15 attempts.

Verdict: 3rd.

Chelsea

Current position: 4th
Games played: 33
Points/Goal difference: 62 (+31)

Best odds to finish top four: (4/11 Coral)

Form (starting with most recent match): DWWLWW (13pts from a possible 18)

Fixtures: Swansea (a), Man Utd (a), Spurs (h), Villa (a), Everton (h)

Summary: While everything seems to be rolling for the Gunners, the Blues conceded a 97th minute equaliser at Anfield on Sunday. Throw in the distraction of a Europa League semi-final and possibly a final, and the run-in looks tough. It’s hard to see where the easy wins come in May; they play three top-6 teams and head to Villa Park to face a side fighting for their lives.

Verdict: 5th. Recommended bet - ‘Not to finish top four’: 13/5 (PaddyPower)

Tottenham

Current position: 5th
Games played: 33
Points/Goal difference: 61 (+17)

Best odds to finish top four: 10/11 (Bet365)

Form (starting with most recent match): WDWLLW (10pts from a possible 18)

Fixtures: Wigan (a), Southampton (h), Chelsea (a), Stoke (a), Sunderland (h)

Summary: What a difference three goals in seven minutes against Man City could make. Before that Spurs were staring at a critical third defeat in five matches at the worst possible time. Avoiding defeat at Stamford Bridge will be absolutely imperative. Do that and take maximum points at home and it will surely be close. A trip to the DW Stadium will be tense with Wigan fighting relegation while AVB will hope Stoke are safe by 12 May.

Verdict: 4th