The Alternative Form Table

Using the criteria set out in our ‘Shots On Target’ feature, each week we will analyse the recent set of Premier League fixtures to see if the scorelines were a fair reflection of the games. Using ‘shots on target’ rather than goals as out key metric, we hope to discover matches that didn’t produce a ‘fair’ scoreline given the balance of play.

1 January 2013

Source: whoscored.com
Negative numbers = away team supremacy

West Brom Merited At Least A Draw
Fulham registered a rare away win at the Hawthorns in the last round of Premier League matches, but this doesn’t mean Fulham have solved their problems on the road. West Brom had more shots (18 v 10) and more on target (4 v 3) to warrant at least a point from the game, the woodwork twice denying the Baggies.

With five weeks of data to hand we can start taking a long-term view of the teams who are over-achieving compared to their shots on targets. We can also highlight teams that have been unlucky and warranted more points from their matches.

Alternative Form Table

Positive difference = team performed better than results
Negative difference = team performed worse than results

From a betting perspective Southampton’s form isn’t reflective of their play. Three draws and a defeat in their last four matches is scant reward. By our calculations they were value for five more points during that period. The Saints are 2/1 (Paddy Power) to win at Villa Park this weekend.

At the opposite end of the spectrum, Manchester United have gained 6 points more than they merited according to our ‘shots on target’ calculations. Results against Sunderland, Swansea and Newcastle could easily have gone the other way. The difference has been Robin Van Persie and Javier Hernandez taking their chances. The United strikers are averaging a goal every 4.6 and 3.8 shots respectively. To put that into context Lionel Messi and Falcao are averaging a goal every 3.5 shots in La Liga this season.