Survival Sunday: Highest Scoring Team

The final day of the Premier League season is upon us and has been dubbed ‘Survival Sunday’ with five teams still battling to preserve their elite status. The bookies have come up with a few special bets for one of the few instances in any season when all 20 teams kick-off at the same time on the same day. One of the more intriguing options is to pick the highest scoring team of the day. Man Utd and Spurs have been placed as joint favourites with respective home games against Blackpool and Birmingham in the offing. The champions look like the better bet at 7/1 with bet365.

First of all let’s put the circumstances of the day to one side and look at the statistics. Man Utd have an Old Trafford record of won 17, drawn 1, lost 0. They have scored 45 home goals at a rate of 2.5 per game and face a Blackpool side who have conceded 37 goals on their travels at more than 2 per game. Against the other bottom sides this season, Ferguson’s record breakers have hit seven against Blackburn, five against Birmingham, four against Wigan and West Ham. In the reverse fixture against the Tangerines, United survived a big scare to win 3-2. In other words, the champions have repeatedly demonstrated their superiority over the lesser sides through weight of goals.

Let’s next dismiss the ‘concerns’ some have raised in the media this week that United will field a weakened side and hand the Seasiders an unfair advantage. The so-called second string put four goals past Schalke in the second leg of the Champions League semi-final. The Red Devils have strength in depth. Besides which, Ferguson has already gone on record to confirm a number of experienced international players who will be playing on Sunday. The last thing he wants is a ludicrously rusty team to trot out against Barcelona in the Champions League final.

Analysis of the battle to avoid the drop only re-inforces the likelihood of United goals. Holloway’s side begin proceedings in the bottom three and can’t rely on other results to go their way. There’s every chance that they will find themselves desperately pushing forward to score the goals that might keep them in the top flight. They might even have some success in that regard, but the gaps they leave at the back could be frightening. It will be a rare sight indeed to see a side in the lower echelons of the table going to Old Trafford to attack. There is every chance we will discover why this is such a rarity.

So why are United a better bet than others on the day? Tottenham are playing a Birmingham side who begin with a better goal difference than Blackpool or Wigan and may defend that advantage as long as they can. If the second half arrives with all three sides on 39 points losing 1-0 then the Blues would still be ok. Just. They are more likely to be in defensive mode depending how the day pans out and this could stifle Spurs. Redknapp’s side have mustered a meagre 28 goals at White Hart Lane all season - no team in the top 12 have scored fewer at home.

The odds on Man Utd top scoring looks even healthier when the fixtures of the other big sides are considered. Chelsea, Arsenal, Man City and Liverpool all have away games in which they are unlikely to cut loose. Back the champions to end the campaign in style, as the day’s top scorers at 7/1 with bet365.