Strength In Adversity

We have entered the home straight in the football season with only seven rounds of Premier League fixtures to go. For those at the bottom of the table it is a desperate scrap for points and survival. The well-trodden cliché that ‘every game is like a cup final’ rings true.

Wigan, QPR and Bolton have all enjoyed good results of late. So does the spectre of relegation actually improve performances for those languishing near the trap door?

To find out we have focused on the bottom six teams at this stage of the season for the past 10 years. We then compared points gained from their last 8 matches to their previous 30.

In 9 of the last 10 seasons the bottom six actually improved on average over the last 8 matches. The prospect of relegation gave them an uplift of 0.2 points per game, a 19% improvement. An awareness of this rally-effect could give you the edge over the bookmakers.