SPL: Relegation Tip: Hibernian

The smaller sides in the top flight can all find grounds for optimism ahead of the new season. It’s just possible that this is the time for one of the big boys to slip through the trap door. At 18/1 with PaddyPower, Hibernian provide all the value in the 2011-12 relegation market.

Let’s start with the other major contenders for finishing bottom of the pile come May. At 5/2 with bet365, new boys Dunfermline find themselves as favourites for the drop. We all know that short odds for relegation are just an inevitable consequence of promotion for most sides, but history is on the side of the division one champions. Only one promoted team has gone straight back down in the last 10 years - and that was cash-strapped Gretna. Athletic were unbeaten in their last 12 games and have since made seven new signings as they add strength to an already successful squad.

At 3/1 (all odds are best-price) with SkyBet, St Mirren are next in the relegation odds. A shrewd summer spending spree has seen talk of targeting the top six in Paisley. The two most high profile captures have been former Scotland stars Gary Teale and Steven Thompson - both could add some real flair to an already dogged outfit. Pre-season form indicates that the Buddies are well-placed to extend their run beyond six straight seasons in the top flight.

Kilmarnock find themselves touted as 9/2 relegation shots by Coral despite a fine run taking them to the top six last time out. It would take a massive decline under Kenny Shiels for bottom spot to be a major concern in just a few more months. St Johnstone are 5/1 with bet365 despite finishing comfortably clear of danger in eighth. With the third best defensive record in the whole league the Saints are built on solid foundations. The purchase of Sean Higgins from Dundee should help at the other end. Inverness are 8/1 with totesport after finishing with 53 points last season - enough to make them unlikely strugglers this time.

This leaves us with Hibernian. Manager Colin Calderwood’s job appears to hang by a thread after a dismal run saw the Edinburgh side limp into 10th spot with just 37 points. The end of season split did nothing to improve matters for the Easter Road outfit as they ended with five defeats and a draw in the last six matches. Even beleagured Hamilton won home and away to Hibs en route to relegation. There will be those who say that things will only get better when Calderwood inevitably departs. Possible, but then again they said the same when John Hughes left just last October.

Two struggling managers in a row suggests that the problems are deep-rooted and will be hard to reverse. Only a club with a proud history would have long odds on relegation in this predicament; no reason at all not to take the value on offer at 18/1 with PaddyPower.