Sharp Shooters

Every manager wants a prolific striker. Goals win matches and that is why they command the highest transfer fees. Forwards are judged by the quantity of goals they score, but is that fair?

For example, a striker playing for Manchester United is always going to score more than a striker playing for Stoke because Manchester United create more goal scoring opportunities.  So instead we have focused on a different metric called ‘conversion rate’. This is the percentage of shots that are goals (total goals/total shots).

We have aggregated goal scoring data from the past three years to calculate a Premier League average ‘conversion rate’. Players must have scored at least 6 goals in any one season to qualify. In the last 3 years these players have scored a total of 1572 goals from 11,805 shots, with a 13.32% conversion rate.

Having established the average conversion rate, we can now compare individual player performances to the mean.

Individual Conversion Rate compared to the mean

Criteria: At least 10 goals & 100 shots during the last three seasons, up to 2012/13.

The list is quite comprehensive but there are some interesting names and numbers to pick out.

Sharp Shooters
Javier Hernandez tops the list with an incredible 22.76% conversion rate. The young Mexican was not a regular starter under Sir Alex Ferguson but he certainly made the most of his limited opportunities. He might struggle to oust Robin Van Persie, who also enjoys an excellent 17.96% conversion rate, but he is a more than able deputy.

Many onlookers were surprised when Martin O’Neill spent £12million on Stephen Fletcher, but you can understand the logic. Sunderland struggled for goals and the Scotland international is a poacher supreme, with the third best conversion rate in the Premier League over the last three years, despite playing in struggling teams.  The 17/10 (Paddy Power) on Stephen Fletcher being Sunderland’s leading scorer this season looks a steal.

Wide of the mark
At the bottom of the list we have players who don’t make the most of their chances. Players like Fernando Torres, Olivier Giroud and Danny Welbeck score less frequently then they should considering the number of shots they have and the teams they play for.

Gareth Bale and Luis Suarez also feature towards the bottom of the list but this might have something to do with their ‘shoot-on-sight’ policy which means their shot numbers are inflated by often low quality scoring opportunities.

Impact on betting
The big question is how can we gain an edge over bookmakers armed with this data?

Players at the top of the list should be good anytime goalscorer bets when they face opposition who allow a high number of shots.  However, the likes of Robin Van Persie and Sergio Aguero already have lofty reputations that are probably reflected in the prices.

Unfashionable players like Stephen Fletcher and Peter Crouch might be better bets when they play opponents who allow a high number of shots.  More importantly, having established an average conversion rate of 13.32% we can make money from players who deviate from the mean.

Last season Adam Le Fondre struck a purple patch where his conversion rate hit an unsustainable 23.3% and therefore became a player to oppose in the goalscorer markets. At some stage he had to regress to the mean - and he did.

Likewise a player who drops significantly below the mean might become a good bet, as it is unlikely they have become a bad player overnight.  But beware of players who might be in a terminal decline or affected by a tactical change in their play.