Real Madrid v Dortmund Tip

There are anomalies in the betting for the second leg of this Champions League semi-final that could be open to exploitation. If we consider the context of the match as a whole then I think we can find some value.

Firstly, let’s consider that Real Madrid are fully expected to win on the night at best odds of 4/7 with PaddyPower. They would progress with a 3-0 win, 4-1 would instigate extra-time while 5-2 would still send Dortmund through. In other words, an away goal would surely all but kill off any faint hopes that the hosts have prior to kick-off.

Next consider that the bookies make it a 4/9 (Bet365) shot that both teams score at the Bernabeu. So that is the expectation, and if that is the expectation then there is every chance that Real Madrid will have lost all realistic hope long before the end of 90 minutes.

With this mind a score draw on the night looks pretty long at best odds of 9/2 with PaddyPower. It’s worth remembering that it ended 2-2 when these sides met here in the group stages and Dortmund are the only unbeaten team in the competition in 2012-13.

Jurgen Klopp’s boys have actually drawn four of their five away games in the Champions League so far. Another one for the collection isn’t so unlikely, particularly if the hosts let their heads drop when the likelihood of elimination becomes more of a certainty.