7th Feb 2013 | Football
Reading Taking Their Chances
We take a statistical approach to the Premier League, which sees Reading’s recent revival based around an unusually high goal-scoring rate.
Using ‘shots on target’ rather than goals as our key metric, we analyse recent Premier League fixtures to see if the scorelines were a fair reflection of the game.
Alternative Form Table
Sharp Shooting Reading
Reading are one of the form teams in the league at the moment, four wins in six games has seen the Royals move out of the relegation zone and fill their fans with optimism.
Our statistical analysis shows Reading have earned 9 points more then their performances ‘deserved.’ Good news for Brian McDermott, but from a betting perspective it appears to be a short-term deviation from the mean.
In their last eight games, Reading have scored 11 goals from 21 shots on target, a 52% success rate. More remarkably they have scored 6 goals from 7 shots on target in their last three games, a whopping 86% success rate. According to data from the last four Premier League seasons, a more realistic success rate is 28%.
Top 10 PL Goalscorers + Top 3 Reading Goalscorers
Reading players in blue
Source: whoscored.com
Reading’s recent success is down to clinical finishing. Out of the top ten scorers in the Premier League, Adam Le Fondre has the best strike rate, scoring on average every 4.3 shots (on & off target). His team-mates are equally sharp, with Jimmy Kebe and Pavel Pogrebnyak both enjoying high strike rates, albeit from a smaller sample of shots.
From a betting perspective the question you must ask, is whether this is sustainable or will Reading’s strikers return to the mean in the near future?
Odds correct at time of publishing: 11:29 7th Feb, 2013 but subject to change
