9th Sep 2021 | Premier League

Rock Bottom Remains Unknown

Our assumptions about big teams means that most people expect a home win here, just because. But Arsenal haven't been unlucky in any game so far. It's the newly promoted team who have shown signs of in-game competitiveness.

It’s 19th against 20th at the Emirates on Saturday, and all eyes will be on Mikel Arteta’s boys. We don’t know these sides’ true level at this point and a strong case can be made for Norwich being an outdated price at 6/1 with BetFair.

Both have zero points and bad goal differences, but when we delve a little deeper we can see that it’s the Canaries who have performed better against unrelentingly decent opposition. Farke’s boys have faced Liverpool, Man City and Leicester which is at worst comparable with Arsenal’s start against Brentford, Chelsea and Man City.

The Xg stats tell us that Norwich can count themselves unlucky to date, comparably. Their xPts are rated as 2.57 by ‘ Understat’, which when rounded up would have been an outstanding return against class sides.

In contrast, Arsena’s xPts is just 0.73 with the same analysts claiming that the Gunners’ defence is slightly lucky to only have conceded 9! Faced with the data, these odds belong to the Wenger era.

1pt Norwich to win 6/1 with Betfair
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Odds correct at time of publishing: 14:12 9th Sep, 2021 but subject to change