13th Jan 2014 | Premier League
Deadlock at Villa Park
The home side are better suited playing on the counter-attack, whilst Arsenal’s strong defence suggest they won't concede more than one goal.
After a weekend where six of the top seven in the Premier League won, the bookmakers are running scared of Arsenal making it a full house and have them at 1/2 to win at Villa Park. Their run-up liabilities might have something to do with the price because it looks on the short side to me.
Aston Villa don’t have a particularly good home record but they fare better as underdogs and can hit teams on the counter attack. Remember they beat Arsenal on the opening day of the season and vanquished Man City at Villa Park.
The Gunners have improved significantly since then, losing only one more game in the league but I expect this evening’s encounter to be closer than people expect.
The draw looks a good bet at 7/2 (Bet365) but we can improve those odds based on our goal expectations for the game.
Arsenal have conceded more than one goal in a league game only twice this season which narrows down the draw possibilities to 0-0 or 1-1.
We can cover both eventualities by backing a 1-1 scoreline with William Hill or Bet365 as both will refund losing bets if the match ends 0-0 but the odds don’t warrant playing it safe.
Instead, we should be bold and back a 1-1 draw at a generous 9/1 with BetVictor.
Odds correct at time of publishing: 13:49 13th Jan, 2014 but subject to change
