Big Sam Big Improvements

Everton have quickly dragged themselves away from the relegation battle and Sam Allardyce’s reign has got off to a strong start. A talented playing squad are reaping the rewards of improved organisation and the return of Yannick Bolaise is another bonus.

However, for the early kick-off against Chelsea the bookmakers seem to have forgotten Everton have changed managers and have accounted for the obvious step change in performance. The other thing that has passed them by are Chelsea’s struggles. They are not the same side that swept all before them last season and their underlying metrics make them the sixth best team in the league.

My expected goal model has them with a 0.44 goal difference per game (Man City are 1.92 for context) and that leaves them vulnerable. The 11/8 available in the Everton/Draw Double Chance market is cracking value.