Premier League Tip: Relegation Treble

Picking the three sides who will be wiping away the most tears come the end of the season is a tough ask in August. But our reward for putting our necks on the line at the outset is lucrative odds. Coral are going 20/1 on newcomers Swansea and Norwich making a swift return to the Championship along with Blackburn. That’s where our money is going. Wait until Christmas to make a similar bet, and the likelhood is that the price will have been slashed.

The case for the new boys struggling is not a difficult one to make. Swansea City, the play-off winners, weren’t good enough to finish ahead of QPR or Norwich in the second tier so it’s hard to find established top flight sides who they can beat over nine months. The club haven’t played at this level since 1983 and there aren’t many individuals in the squad who bring experience of this division.

Scott Sinclair and Danny Graham have excelled at Championship level but they will find it a big step up. Boss Brendan Rodgers will need to learn just as fast. Unlike Neil Warncock at QPR for example, he is a novice at this level, saving a spell as reserve team coach at Chelsea. The loss of first choice keeper Dorus de Vries, who signed on a free for Wolves, looks like an obstacle too far to overcome. Overall, inexperience will be telling.

Many of the same accusations can be levelled at Norwich City. A double promotion run means that some players are making the step up from League One to the Premier in the space of just 18 months. It’s a squad devoid of stars which may be good for team spirit, but it does tell its own story. Paul Lambert has received overwhelming credit for what he’s achieved with limited raw talent at his disposal. If he leaves, then the Canaries have no chance. But even if he stays, the momentum that carried them through the Championship won’t hold up at this level. There will be many weeks that pass at a time without wins, and when the confidence drains away, what will Norwich have left?

The final part of our treble foresees the demise of Blackburn Rovers. The second half of last season was a fiasco, and Steve Kean would have already been out the door if it wasn’t for final day survival. But that has the look of a stay of execution when the owners are so ludicrously far-fetched in their demands. It’s hard to sift through the squad list and find one player who would get into a top 7 side. Yet the Venky’s Group have one eye on the Champions League.

They don’t want to spend top dollar to match their ambition, and that is bound to take its toll on morale when expectations aren’t met. You would always back the likes of Wigan and Wolves to fight for each other when the going gets tough, but most teams will be licking their lips in anticipation of a visit from Rovers. Ewood Park no longer looks like such a daunting assignment either.

Back Swansea, Norwich and Blackburn to comprise the bottom three come next May, at odds of 20/1 with Coral.