22nd Mar 2013 | Football
Premier League Relegation Predictions
After studying all the fixture run-ins for every team down the bottom, there is a surprising conclusion as to who will be relegated.
With only eight fixtures left for most sides, the entire bottom half of the Premier League table are still vulnerable to the threat of relegation. We look at who’s got the toughest run-in to see where the value lies.
QPR :
Current position: 20th
Current points/goal diff: 23 (-22)
Points from last 8 games: 9
Fixtures: Ful (a), Wig (h), Eve (a), Sto (h), Rea (a), Ars (h), New (h), Liv (a).
Predicted points total: 37. As good a set of fixtures as Redknapp could realistically hope for. A minimum of 4 wins is required and that still looks just about possible based on the home games especially. But it may not be quite enough.
Reading:
Current position: 19th
Current points/goal diff: 23 (-22)
Points from last 8 games: 7
Fixtures: Ars (a), Sou (h), Liv (h), Nor (a), QPR (h), Ful (a), Man C (h), WH (a)
Predicted points total: 27. After the sacking of McDermott and with no new man yet at the helm, it’s hard to see where the next win is coming from. A few draws or a solitary win may be the best the Royals can muster.
Recommended bet: To finish bottom (8/13 Ladbrokes)
Wigan:
Current position: 18th
Current points/goal diff: 27 (-21)
Points from last 8 games: 9
Fixtures: Nor (h), QPR (a), Man C (a), WH (a), Tot (h), WBA (a), Swa (h), Ars (a), Vil (h)
Predicted points total: 38. The other teams down the bottom will fear the Latics with their famed powers of survival. It could all come down to that final fixture when Villa come to the DW Stadium. They also have a game-in-hand.
Recommended bet: To stay up (Evens Coral)
Villa:
Current position: 17th
Current points/goal diff: 30 (-25)
Points from last 8 games: 11
Fixtures: Liv (h), Sto (a), Ful (h), Man U (a), Sun (h), Nor (a), Che (h), Wig (a)
Predicted points total: 38. Crunch games loom with Sunderland, Norwich and Wigan. A packed Villa Park has been a better place to be lately and even the big boys could relinquish points. Goal difference is a concern though.
Southampton:
Current position 16th
Current points/goal diff: 31 (-10)
Points from last 8 games: 9
Fixtures: Che (h), Rea (a), WH (h), Swa (a), WBA (h), Tot (a), Sun (a), Sto (h)
Predicted points total: 43. The Saints look like they can beat anyone at St Mary’s - Liverpool and Man City both recently left empty-handed. Remaining home fixtures look generally inviting so they should stay up with something to spare.
Recommended bet: Top Newcomer (15/8 StanJames)
Sunderland:
Current position: 15th
Current points/goal diff: 31 (-9)
Points from last 8 games: 6
Fixtures: Man U (h), Che (a), New (a), Eve (h), Vil (a), Sto (h), Sou (h), Tot (a)
Predicted points total: 37. In big trouble after seven winless outings. The Black Cats will do well to end that streak in the next four daunting matches, three of which are against top-six sides. The threat of relegation is greater than many foresee.
Recommended bet: To be relegated (7/2 PaddyPower)
West Ham:
Current position: 14th
Current points/goal diff: 33 (-11)
Points from last 8 games: 7
Fixtures: WBA (h), Liv (a), Sou (a), Man U (h), Wig (h), Man C (a), New (h), Eve (a), Rea (h).
Predicted points total: 43. Have more home games left than anybody else and Upton Park is where the points are coming from with some tough away days left. Reading on the last day look like welcome visitors if a result is still required at that point.
Newcastle:
Current position: 13th
Current points total/goal diff: 33 (-11)
Points from last 8 games: 12
Fixtures: Man C (a), Ful (h), Sun (h), WBA (a), Liv (h), WH (a), QPR (a), Ars (h)
Predicted points total: 39. The Europa League is a welcome distraction but the fixture congestion is in danger of stopping the Magpies reaching the magic mark of 40 pts. It’s hard to see more than two more wins so survival could be by small margins.
Norwich:
Current position: 12th
Current points total/goal diff: 34 (-18)
Points from last 8 games: 8
Fixtures: Wig (a), Swa (h), Ars (a), Rea (h), Sto (a), Vil (h), WBA (h), Man C (a)
Predicted points total: 40. Defensive solidity has made the Canaries tough to beat and they are currently drawing their way to safety. Either Swansea or Reading must be beaten at home and if that happens a third consecutive season in the top flight should be assured.
Stoke:
Current position: 11th
Current points total/goal diff: 34 (-8)
Points from last 8 games: 5
Fixtures: Eve (a), Vil (h), Man U (h), QPR (a), Nor (h), Sun (a), Tot (h), Sou (a)
Predicted points total: 41. Have the worst points return of any of the sides in the bottom half from the last eight games. However, two defeats at home all season suggest the Potters will be fine although a top-10 finish will again prove elusive.
Predicted bottom half of the table at the end of the season:
11th: Southampton 43 pts
12th: West Ham 43 pts
13th: Stoke 41 pts
14th: Norwich 40 pts
15th: Newcastle 39 pts
16th: Wigan 38 pts
17th: Villa 38 pts
18th: Sunderland 37 pts
19th QPR 37 pts
20th: Reading 27 pts
Recommended bet: Relegation treble (Reading/QPR/Sunderland) 6/1 Bet365
Odds correct at time of publishing: 15:31 22nd Mar, 2013 but subject to change
