Premier League Key Players Part 1

Inspired by the premise of Moneyball, a new approach to statistical analysis enabled a Major League Baseball team to punch well above their weight, But can that this approach be applied to football, and therefore betting?

The first problem is that football is much more of a team game than baseball; but an individual can still exert a strong influence on results and we can try to measure this. Starting with the top ten teams in the division we have looked at which players have enjoyed the most success for their respective teams this season.

To keep it simple we have set two parameters:

1. The player must have played at least seven games for his team.
2. A ‘game’ constitutes at least 60 minutes on the pitch.

We then record how many points the team gained when a player fitted the above criteria. For example if Steven Gerrard played ten games (lasting at least 60min) and Liverpool won every game, Steven Gerrard would average 3 points per game.

The table below shows the players who have enjoyed the most success, by points per game, for their respective teams.

Leading Points Earners Per Team

You will see we have added an ‘influence’ metric; this is the team’s overall points per game average compared to points earned when the ‘key’ footballer is playing. The higher the influence, the bigger the impact on the team’s result that player has.

One result to highlight is Ledley King’s performance. Tottenham have won every game King has played in; suggesting he is a key member of their team. Likewise Chelsea earn 25% more points when Didier Drogba plays.

Some less heralded players also come to the fore. Norwich gain almost 50% more points when midfield David Fox is playing. As for Newcastle their current dip in form is put down to the absence of Steven Taylor and Fabio Coloccini but actually an injury to Leon Best has arguably affected their results more.

But all this analysis must be taken with a pinch of salt, as it is very top level research. for example we don’t take into account the strength of the opposition or home field advantage. Nevertheless it provides food for thought, especially when placing your football bets. Perhaps people should look at the team sheets more closely.

We will focus on the bottom half of the league next week.