Montenegro v England

England can secure qualification for the finals of Euro 2012 with a draw in Montenegro. The hosts view this as possibly the biggest match in their short history, and will be sure to have a real go. I foresee Capello’s side just about withstanding a barrage of early pressure before quality finally tells in the second period. With that in mind, a good bet looks to be ‘half-time: draw - full-time: England,’ at best odds of 7/2 with Coral.

The difficulty of the task facing England should not be under-estimated. They were held 0-0 by this opposition at Wembley a year ago and the ‘Brave Falcons’ have occupied one of the top two spots in the group throughout. Montenegro have lost only one of their last 11 home internationals, winning eight of them. They have kept clean sheets in five of their last six at the Podgorica City Stadium, conceding just one in the other match.

With all this in mind it is curious that Montenegro saw fit to recently change their manager. Zlatko Kranjcar was dismissed, somewhat harshly, after a 2-1 defeat to Wales and a 1-1 home draw with Bulgaria. Those disappointments, after such a hugely successful qualification campaign up to that point, heralded the arrival of current boss Branislav Brnovic on September 8. Clearly ambitions are high, and the new man faces a huge task for his first game in charge.

Those recent setbacks lead me to believe that England will prevail in the end. Capello’s side have always been at their best away from Wembley, winning 3-0, 2-0 and 3-1 on their Group G travels. This will be the toughest test yet, but the visitors are close to full strength and feeling pretty confident these days. Back the draw at half-time with England taking the points by the end at 7/2 with Coral.