International Friendlies: England v Ghana

As we discussed during the Wales game, for all the Capello bashing that is going on, he has a pretty good record in qualifiers: played 14 – won 12, drawn 1, lost 1.

With international friendlies it is not so good: played 17 – won 11, drawn 2, lost 4. However given the experimental nature of his sides in non-competitive games, it is perhaps to be expected.

Victor Chandler go 3/4 on an England win and that is about right. Considering there could be seven changes to the line-up from Saturday, with fringe players getting a run out, the outright result is one to swerve. Same goes for the player markets given the uncertainty of the team and how long they will be on the pitch.

One consistent factor in Capello friendlies is how the games have panned out. Usually England start well, get a goal, lose their way, get pegged back, then push for the winner and save face.

Under the Italian, of the 32 goals scored by England in friendlies, 7 of them have come in the last ten minutes. Whatever the media like to say about the matches it is clear the players want to win.

The theory is further borne out by the number of goals per game. In the last 17 friendlies there have been 50 goals. That is close to three goals per game.

This points us to the over/under goals market and surprisingly the bookmakers have got this wrong. A handful of them go odds against that there will be over 2.5 goals in the Ghana game tonight. If we look at England’s history in friendlies under Capello; matches have passed the 2.5 goal mark in 13 out of 17 games.

History suggests the true odds for ‘overs’ is 3/10 as opposed to the 11/10 on offer with the bookmakers.