Portugal v Sweden: First Leg Tip

In perhaps the most eagerly anticipated of the World Cup play-offs, Portugal entertain Sweden on Friday night for what is being billed as ‘Ronaldo versus Ibrahimovic.’ However, rather than getting involved in somewhat predictable goalscorer bets for this first leg, I’m going to try and take advantage of the hosts’ nerves at really long odds.

Portugal finished one point behind Russia in Group F and they blew it in Lisbon only last month. Paulo Bento’s boys conceded an 85th minute equaliser to Israel which essentially consigned them to the play-offs. The Euro 2012 semi-finalists also faltered at home to Northern Ireland, drawing 1-1 in Porto last October as the expectations of the fans proved too much for Ronaldo and co.

In contrast, Sweden are a team that doesn’t know when it’s beaten. Never has this been better illustrated than when Erik Hamren’s fighters remarkably came from 4-0 down to draw 4-4 with Germany in Berlin. The Scandinavians also won away to the Republic of Ireland and at home to Austria courtesy of crucial second half goals.

Given the tension of these occasions, plus the recent trends, it would be no surprise to see the Iberians get jittery in the latter stages here. BetVictor offer a huge best price of 18/1 on Portugal leading at the break but drawing by the end of the night.