10th Jun 2012 | Euro 2012
Group D Tip: England
The fragile hopes of a nation hinge on a resolute back 5 keeping the odd clean sheet. They look capable of that.
If you want a patriotic tip but are acutely aware that betting on England aggressively feels like a bad idea, there is at least one angle to pursue with confidence. The Three Lions do appear to have one legitimate string to their bow - the defence. PaddyPower offer 6/5 on Hodgson’s side conceding under 2.5 goals in the group stages. That is something they should be able to achieve.
Even with injuries, England have an excellent foundation for clean sheets with Joe Hart, John Terry and Ashley Cole among the world’s best in their positions. Hodgson seems content to play the hand he’s been given. This means counter-attacking and often allowing the other team to dominate possession. This happened in both warm-up matches against Belgium and Norway so it will surely be a feature against higher calibre opponents.
But the good news for England fans is that this approach yielded two 1-0 victories; indeed they have won by this scoreline in four of their last five outings, including against champions Spain.
A low-scoring defeat to the French, perhaps the most likely outcome, would not make this bet unwinnable. If England can actually exceed expectations then we can be very confident heading into the remaining fixtures.
Odds correct at time of publishing: 15:28 10th Jun, 2012 but subject to change
