England’s Precarious Position Of Their Own Making

England’s participation at the World Cup is uncertain but it could be much worse. Sat two points behind Montenegro with a game in hand, Roy Hodgson’s men know their fate is in their own hands.

Victory over Moldova looks a formality with a crunch game against Ukraine in Kiev on Tuesday. England are 4/7 (Stan James) to win the group but on performances alone, their status as favourites is unmerited.

If we judge England’s games on shots then we can assign a meritocratic ‘scoreline’ for each of their matches; working on the assumption that a team scores every 10.2 shots as explained in our Alternative Form feature. 

Alternative England Form

Negative number denotes away team supremacy
Results derived from England’s shots per game would give them 11 points, a fortunate draw away in Poland being a match they deserved to lose. On a positive note, England did merit a win over the Ukraine. They registered twice as many shots in total and twice as many shots on target.

Alternative Group H Standings

If we apply the same formula to every game played in Group H we end up with quite a different looking table. Poland would be top with a game in hand over Montenegro, who are flattered by their actual position in the group.

Poland are 21/20 (William Hill) to beat Montenegro on Friday night and with a midweek game against San Marino to follow they shouldn’t be written off. At 28/1 (Boylesports) they could still win a tight looking group.