England v Switzerland: First Goalscorer

The domestic football season finally comes to end on Saturday when Fabio Capello’s side have the chance to consolidate their strong position at the top of Euro 2012 qualifying Group G. For all the lingering lack of excitement and belief in the national team, England are still overwhelming favourites to make the finals and to dispatch Switzerland in the process, at odds of 4/11 with Coral. Yet again, we can target the first goalscorer market in the pursuit of true value.

The best pick is a close call between form striker Darren Bent at 15/4 favourite with bet365, and our successful punt from England’s last qualifier, Frank Lampard at 6/1 with SkyBet. Of the rest, Bobby Zamora could start in the absence of Rooney and Defoe, but is totally unproven at this level. At a best price of 11/2, his inexperience makes him less tempting than our top two. Peter Crouch is 5/1 with SkyBet but, despite an excellent goals per game ratio, he is likely to start on the bench and therefore loses his value in this market.

With the strikers accounted for, Ashley Young is the only other midfielder worthy of our contemplation at 17/2. The Villa winger has been in good form for club and country but Capello has too many options in wide areas from the likes of Walcott and Downing, to make him a good bet to play 90 minutes. As it is, Young is probably more likely to provide the ammunition for the likes of Bent, as he did against Wales, than score himself.

Lampard did open the scoring that day, and his role as penalty taker continues to be persuasive in the first goalscorer market. He is expected to be given his usual freedom to get forward at Wembley, with Scott Parker tucked in behind him for cover. But on this occasion, Darren Bent looks like the slightly better bet. The Aston Villa marksman will relish his role as first-choice striker in the absence of Rooney; his place was never in doubt anyway after three goals in his last three games for his country. His recent form for his club will further boost his confidence where he ended the season with 17 league goals to his name. At 15/4 with bet365, the smart money is on Bent to get England firing against the Swiss.