Football Tips: England v Sweden

I’m not one for delving through the history books but Sweden are unbeaten against England since 1968 - a run of 12 meetings. That isn’t very important, but I suspect England were priced up as favourites on every one of those occasions. On Tuesday night the hosts are odds-on (4/5 WilliamHill) to win again, but I don’t think that is the right bet to take.

Yes, world champions Spain were beaten at the weekend, but let’s not get carried away. If the same match was played out ten times, England would do well to triumph even once more. Capello’s side defended well but the goal came very much against the run of play. But even if I’m underrating the performance, it doesn’t really matter because a completely different team will take to the Wembley turf against the Scandinavians. Capello has promised eight changes to the starting line-up and a likely front pairing of Zamora and Wellbeck is highly experimental.

Only last month Sweden beat World Cup finalists Holland in their final game of Euro 2012 qualification. They may have finished runners up behind the Dutch, but 24 points from 10 games is actually a better statistical return than England’s 18 from 8 matches. Erik Hamren’s side can also boast an impressive away win in the Ukraine as recently as the summer. In other words, a squad containing the likes of Olof Mellberg, Sebastian Larsson and Zlatan Ibrahimovic will be no pushovers.

England have actually been pretty mediocre at Wembley for a while. Before the Spain game there was a very unconvincing 1-0 victory against Wales in September. Prior to that, the two other home fixtures of 2011 ended with draws against Switzerland and Ghana. The final clash of 2010 was a Wembley 2-1 defeat to France; Montenegro drew 0-0 just before that.

With all this in mind, another draw against Sweden really looks like being the most likely outcome. With the lowest ever crowd for an England game expected at the new stadium, the atmosphere may not be the greatest source of inspiration for the players either. Back the spoils to be shared at best odds of 13/5 with SkyBet.