El-Clasi-Goalless?

For all the hype and excitement generated by the recent spate of matches between Real Madrid and Barcelona, goal-fests have been non-existent. Post game analysis has focused on the aggravation between the two sides, with off-field controversy coming everywhere you look. To some extent this has covered up the fact that goal mouth incident has been at a premium in each of the past three encounters. The bookies continue to see goals as inevitable because of the names on the teamsheets, but this presumption could be exploitable. At 14/1, a 0-0 draw in the second leg of this Champions League showdown is greatly overpriced.

Let’s look at the recent clashes more closely. On April 16th the rivals drew 1-1 in La Liga courtesy of two second half penalties at the Bernabeu. On April 20th Mourinho was lapping up the praise after his side pinched the Copa del Rey trophy with an extra time header from Cristiano Ronaldo. The game had finished 0-0 after 90 minutes. Then, only last week, the Champions League match was deadlocked yet again before Madrid’s Pepe was sent off and Lionel Messi pinched two sublime goals in the final 15 minutes. So to summarise, the three El Clasico matches of the past month have produced only four goals in total (Ronaldo’s extra-time strike aside), and two of those were penalties. The other two were only conceded after Madrid were reduced to 10 men, and all three matches were 0-0 well into the second half. Not exactly thrillers then!

The imbalance of the tie going into the second leg doesn’t neccessarily mean this game will be anymore open either. Barcelona are 2-0 up and don’t need to force the issue whatsoever. Madrid’s only success against the Catalans has come from stifling their opponents for long periods, without venturing forward too much themselves. Mourhinho has expressed doubt that his side can afford to be too adventurous, even in their perilous situation. He probably accepts that the damage has been done at the Bernabeu and he will go to great lengths to avoid humiliation in the return. The 5-0 defeat of November must not be repeated. 0-0 would save face and allow him to keep bemoaning the first leg officials as the sole difference between the sides. At 14/1 with Coral, the goalless draw must be one of the more likely scorelines at the Nou Camp.