Dortmund v Madrid Tip

Based on the cold hard statistics, the odds are all wrong for the first leg of the second Champions League semi-final on Wednesday. Real Madrid have done very little to justify favouritism away from home and therefore must be opposed, at least over 90 minutes.

Dortmund are still with us courtesy of perhaps the most dramatic end to a Champions League encounter since the 1999 final. The Germans trailed Malaga 2-1 in injury time of their quarter-final second leg, only to miraculously score the two goals required to keep their dreams alive. The Westfalenstadion went berserk and who can blame them. It made you start to wonder if Dortmund’s name could be on the trophy in 2013.

As well as the luck required to pull off that great escape, Jurgen Klopp’s boys have shown no shortage of skill and quality in this year’s competition. They are the only unbeaten team still standing (W6 D4) and they have won all five of their home games thus far. That includes a 2-1 success over Madrid in the group stages. The best odds of 17/10 (PaddyPower) on a Dortmund first leg victory therefore look too good to resist.

It’s not just that the 2011-12 Bundesliga champions have built a fortress, Madrid can also be less than convincing on their travels. Mourinho’s men looked defensively shambolic in the 3-2 second leg defeat to Galatasaray last time out. Having failed to keep any clean sheets on the road in this season’s competition, they better hope they at least grab an away goal on Wednesday.