Demba Ba Anytime Goalscorer Tip

In horse racing the term ‘best when fresh’ is often used to describe a horse who hits their peak immediately after returning from a break. The same term could be used to describe Demba Ba.

The Senegalese striker seems at his most dangerous early in the season, after enjoying a summer break. It is a pattern that has repeated itself since he made his breakthrough in the Bundesliga back in 2008.

If we examine his record in the first 10 games, when he is ‘fresh’, his goal scoring record is far superior compared to later in the season.

I have included his stint with West Ham as he enjoyed a 2-month break between leaving Hoffenheim and joining the Premier League.

The data reveals that Demba Ba scores almost twice as frequently when he is ‘fresh’, a pattern that has repeated itself over four seasons. This isn’t surprising when you consider the injury problems the strike has endured. Moves to Stuttgart and Stoke both collapsed after he failed a medical.

With three goals in four games, the pattern looks like repeating itself this season. Rested from the mid-week Europa League match, Ba looks cracking value at 6/4 (Boylesports) to score anytime against a Norwich team who have conceded on average 2 goals per away game since their return to the top flight.