8th Dec 2015 | Champions League
United Can Edge Low-Scoring Affair
United need to win but are unlikely to run away with it given their attacking impotence. Money back if game ends 0-0.
Group B is delicately poised going into the final round of fixtures with Manchester United travelling to Germany in search of a win. The equation is relatively straightforward but solving it might prove difficult. United need to win to secure their passage into the knockout stages but they cannot score at the moment.
Wolfsburg need to avoid defeat to progress so there is less incentive for them to go on the attack.
In summary we have a match-up between a team that doesn’t need to attack and one that can’t!
The goal expectations for this game seem all wrong. Under 2.5 goals is a best price 1.75 (Bet365) but I have it pegged at 1.39. Using my shot model, Man Utd are ranked 18th in terms of expected goals per game in the Champions League and Wolfsburg 21st.
I rate United the marginally better team and with their desperate need to win they can edge the tie 1-0 at 9/1 (William Hill) with our losing bets refunded as a free bet (£50 max) if the match finishes 0-0, which is the most likely outcome.
Odds correct at time of publishing: 05:33 8th Dec, 2015 but subject to change
