Champions League Final: Tip 1

While it’s understandable that Bayern Munich line-up as favourites for this showpiece occasion on home soil, odds of 7/2 (Boylesports) on a Chelsea victory in 90 minutes simply seem too good to resist.

The case for the upset is as follows: Firstly, home advantage isn’t quite what it seems with both teams receiving an equal ticket allocation. People who assume that the vast majority of fans in the Allianz Arena will end up being German anyway maybe under-estimating the knack of British supporters to make their presence well and truly felt.

Secondly, are the ‘hosts’ really that superior? Bayern have played second fiddle to Borussia Dortmund all season, finishing a comfortable eight points off the pace in the Bundesliga. To rub salt in the wound, the champions really rammed home their superiority last weekend by beating Jupp Heynckes’ side 5-2 in the DFB-Pokal final.

It’s worth recalling that Dortmund were Euro flops themselves in 2011-12. They finished bottom of their Champions League group with one win in six matches while Arsenal dominated. Yet Jurgen Klopp’s team have now beaten Bayern on five consecutive occasions. Should Chelsea really be that fearful of opponents who are seemingly incapable of beating one of their domestic foes?

Finally, Chelsea have shown their true capabilities under Roberto Di Matteo, and should be upgraded from their status as merely the sixth best team in England, based on the Premier League table. It’s a tougher division than the Bundesliga and Drogba and Torres look sharper now than at any other stage of the campaign.

The Blues are missing key players, but so are Bayern. The Germans knocked out Real Madrid, but Chelsea defeated Barcelona. All things considered it almost looks too close to call, so the 7/2 (Boylesports) on Di Matteo’s boys looks like obvious value.