Carlisle v Ebbsfleet Tip

Away from the bright lights of the Premier League, this weekend is one of the most important for lower league football fans – the first round of the FA Cup.

The likes of Braintree Town, Arlesey and the Met Police all have the opportunity to make a name for themselves against league opposition. Even at this lower level, the bookmakers are still biased towards the big names, which can create value for those backing the minnows.

Over the last three seasons, a League One side has hosted a non-league team in the first round of the FA Cup on 11 occasions. Logic would dictate the higher ranked team, with home advantage, would dominate but that isn’t the case.

FA Cup 1st Round
League 1 record at home to non-league opposition: P11 W6 D3 L2

Amazingly, the home team has a meagre 55% win rate, much lower than the odds would imply. Carlisle, Coventry and Doncaster are all long odds-on to win their home ties this weekend; all three are worth opposing but of the trio Carlisle are in most danger.

With four home wins from 12 matches in all competitions, Brunton Park isn’t exactly a fortress. Greg Abbott’s side have large defensively frailties, having managed just two clean sheets in 19 matches. 

Ebbsfleet aren’t exactly in great form themselves, they languish towards the bottom of the Blue Square Premier, but as underdogs they have nothing to lose. If Carlisle concede the first goal then it is game on.

An Ebbsfleet victory looks great value at 8/1 (Coral) in the draw no bet market. This gives us a big upside but with the insurance of getting our money back if the match ends in a draw.