Carling Cup: Winner Tip

The Carling Cup has an unusual element to it that must be conducive to good value betting. Primarily, the bookies price up all the top teams at the shortest odds, just like they would for any other major competition. However, what is barely factored in is the ambivalence of these big sides to the tournament, and the consequent fielding of weakened teams on a regular basis.

Last season Birmingham City won the Carling Cup and Stoke City got to the final of the FA Cup. There is clearly an opportunity for the so-called ‘lesser teams’ to strike gold when the big boys take their eye off the ball. Looking at half decent sides at long odds, Everton (20/1 SkyBet) and Stoke (22/1 StanJames) deserve consideration. Those prices are ok, but they do reflect to some extent the difficulty of their upcoming matches; Chelsea and Liverpool have to be negotiated respectively, just to reach the quarter finals. Certainly not impossible, but I think we can find even better value.

Newcastle United are standout at 28/1 with Bet365. They are unbeaten in the Premier League, where they sit fourth, just one point behind Manchester United. The Toon Army have built their fine start around a rock solid defence; just six goals conceded in nine league matches is the best record in the top flight. At the other end of the park, there are signs that Demba Ba. Leon Best and Shola Ameobi can score enough to grind out plenty of wins.

Alan Pardew’s side face Blackburn Rovers in the last 16 on Wedneday night. It won’t be an easy trip to Ewood Park but the Magpies have to fancy their chances against the bottom side in the division. The same opponents were beaten 3-1 at St James’s Park just four weeks ago. If Newcastle progress to the last eight then there’s every chance that the draw can be kind; there will still be at least a couple of lower league sides in the quarter finals.

But not only that, Newcastle can give any of the top teams a run for their money on their day. A side built on such solid foundations will always have a chance. That would be the case even if the biggest teams weren’t liable to field a number of reserves. I suspect Newcastle will be taking the competition very seriously the longer they stay in it. A major trophy is still desperately craved; the Intertoto Cup didn’t really count - the Carling Cup most definitely would. The fine work of Alan Pardew has ensured they are better equipped for a shot at Cup glory now than they have been for many years.