Bulgaria v England

Too many punters will take a cursory glance at the Group G qualifying table for Euro 2012 and expect England to beat Bulgaria with ease. They’ll remember that Capello’s side recorded a 4-0 win at Wembley when the sides met last September. But delve a little deeper, and everything really suggests a tough encounter in Sofia.

Bulgaria are a much improved side under the tutelage of German legend Lothar Matthaus. The former World Cup star took over as head coach shortly after that heavy defeat in London and the qualifying results improved immediately. Consecutive defeats to begin the campaign before Matthaus arrived, have been followed by an unbeaten sequence of three matches since then. A 1-0 win Cardiff was followed by a 0-0 stalemate with Switzerland and perhaps best of all, a 1-1 draw away to unbeaten Montenegro. Although qualifying looks beyond Bulgaria, they will see the visit of Capello’s stars as the perfect opportunity to show how far they have come.

After an electrifying start, England have dropped points twice in three matches against Montenegro and Switzerland - both at home. Based on competitive results, the gap between Friday’s opponents has to be getting closer. The problem that Matthaus has is clearly there is still a gulf in class. England have the players who can swing a tight match in their favour in an instant. The Bulgarians have only scored two goals in five qualifiers compared to England’s 11. The presence of an in-form Rooney, and the likes of Lampard and Young should be decisive.

I think it will take some time for the quality to tell on Friday, but it will do so in the end. That’s why a half-time draw: full-time England bet makes perfect sense at decent odds of 10/3 with Totesport.